Quiet diplomacy
The US has
reverted to quiet diplomacy to prevent a complete breakdown of the increasingly
dysfunctional relationship with Pakistan. Lisa Curtis, Senior Director for
South and Central Asia at the National Security Council returned to Islamabad
for discussions with the Pakistan Foreign Office represented by Foreign
Secretary Tehmina Janjua. While it makes sense that the effort should be
conducted away from the glare of publicity, the choice of the US envoy could
raise a few eyebrows. Ms Curtis is well known as a trenchant critic of
Pakistan’s policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan even before she assumed her present
responsibility. Nevertheless, her current visit is a follow up to her visit on October
12, 2017 when she met Ms Janjua and COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. That
interaction yielded an agreement for both sides to continue their bilateral engagement
at all levels and reinvigorate the relationship to achieve the objective of
defeating terrorism. This time round, not even that kind of general statement
has followed the interaction with Ms Janjua and her team, not the least,
reports claim, because of Pakistan’s resentment at the role played by Washington
in pushing Pakistan onto the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.
Although the US pushed for Pakistan to be listed in an unprecedented move after
the initial round of discussion at the FATF did not mention Pakistan, it must
be admitted that Pakistan’s diplomacy there was off the mark. China, Turkey and
Saudi Arabia initially supported Pakistan’s case but reports say after Foreign
Minister Khawaja Asif prematurely broke the news that Pakistan had been granted
a three month reprieve to get its counter-illicit financing of terrorism regime
in order, Pakistan lost the support of China and Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s
continued support could not prevent Pakistan being returned onto the FATF grey
list after it had been taken off it in 2015. As it turned out, the steps
Pakistan took to prevent this listing on the eve of the FATF conference such as
taking over Jamaat ud Dawa (JuD) and its welfare front Falah-i-Insaniat’s
assets proved unable to convince the US and its western allies about its
sincerity. That is because such last minute steps were regarded as cosmetic and
not necessarily permanent, i.e. reversible once the heat was off. It may be
recalled that JuD is accused of masterminding the Mumbai attacks and is on the
UN’s terrorism list. Meantime reports also speak of the continuing dialogue
between the Pentagon and GHQ, represented by Centcom Commander General Joseph
Votel and COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. This not only acts as a parallel
conduit for exchange, it reflects the special and long standing relationship
between the military entities of the two countries, informed not just by
irritations over Afghanistan but leavened by the US’s desire to keep one of the
Muslim world’s largest and arguably most battle hardened armies in the region
on its side.
It is time to
revisit our narrative about having wiped out all terrorists from our soil,
denial of any safe havens here for the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network, and
victimhood at the hands of terrorists. This narrative’s sell-by date seems to
have run its course. It may persuade some in our domestic audience but by now
finds little or no traction with the international community. Being placed on
FATF’s grey list is not the end of the matter. Pakistan has now to present a
plan to satisfy FATF regarding beefing up its anti-terrorism financing regime.
If we fail to satisfy FATF, Pakistan could well end up on the organisation’s
black list. The brave words of Miftah Ismail, our current virtual finance
minister regarding no effect on our economy notwithstanding, such a development
could make finding the finance to plug Pakistan’s looming budget and external
deficits that much harder and costlier. That is not an outcome our economy can
afford in its still precarious state. It is in Pakistan’s own best interests to
now abandon the less than credible narrative we have been spinning and urgently
review our policies vis-à-vis terrorism and proxies before the threatened financial
crunch is upon us.
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