Of plots and conspiracies
Opinion amongst the PML-N government’s members and their
allies seems more and more to be veering towards seeing the ongoing political
crisis in Balochistan as a plot against the Senate polls in March. The ruling
PML-N has high stakes in that election since it promises a majority to it in
the upper house. If to that delicious prospect is added current trends in the
run-up to the general elections in July-August, one can understand the PML-N’s
anxiety about the no-confidence motion moved against its Chief Minister Nawab
Sanaullah Zehri. The fear is that whatever the outcome of the no-confidence
move, it could trigger a dissolution of the Balochistan Assembly, which could
disrupt the Senate elections. Further, if other provincial Assemblies,
particularly those of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, led by the PPP and PTI
respectively, follow suit, that may not only put paid to the Senate elections
but even disrupt the present democratic dispensation, delay the general
elections and usher in an establishment-backed technocratic government for an
extended period until the dust settles and democratic business-as-usual, with
‘changes’, can be restored. This is not as paranoid a scenario as it may seem
at first glance. Already there are rumours of some technocrats preening to
assume the mantle of holding the extended interim fort. Meanwhile the
abandonment of Chief Minister Zehri by his own party and coalition allies is
gaining steady momentum. The latest ‘desertions’ are the only woman minister in
the Balochistan cabinet, Rahat Faiq Jamali, and recently appointed Adviser to the
Chief Minister on Excise and Taxation (to replace sacked mover of the
no-confidence motion Mir Amanullah Notezai of coalition partner PML-Q), Mir
Abdul Majid Abro. As if this rolling tide of abandoning what increasingly looks
like a sinking ship were not enough, Senator Osman Kakar of the Pakhtunkhwa
Milli Awami Party has revealed that two of their MPAs have received threatening
calls to support the no-confidence motion. This ‘epidemic’ of calls from some
specific numbers is growing. National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq had referred
to similar calls to MNAs not so long ago. Whoever is the author of such calls
seems oblivious to the poor light it throws on some state institutions. As far
as the no-confidence movers group is concerned, they seem to be growing in
confidence, with former home minister Sarfaraz Bugti claiming they have the
support of 26 MPAs so far (just seven short of a majority).
The plot or conspiracy is said to revolve around three
factors: the Senate elections, Zehri’s loyalty to Nawaz Sharif in the middle of
the latter’s tussle with the establishment, and the overall prism of federal
politics. While the second factor lies at the heart of these moves and
developments, neither Zehri nor Nawaz Sharif can shrug off their own
responsibility for bringing things to this pass. The former has a plethora of complaints
against him from members of his cabinet, PML-N and allies, for arrogance. This
has obviously steadily eroded his ability since coming to power two years ago
to keep the coalition intact and pre-empt any ‘revolt’ inside the PML-N. Nawaz
Sharif on the other hand fell foul of the establishment for a range of alleged
‘crimes’, not the least of which was his reiterated desire for normalisation of
relations with India, prosecuting a former COAS General (retd) Musharraf on
treason and murder charges, attempting to carve out more space for civilian supremacy
over the military establishment, etc. And Nawaz attempted to do all this
without it seems having learnt any lessons from his previous tenures. He seemed
completely oblivious over the four years of his tenure in office to exactly
where his strength lay. The opposition, particularly the PPP, pulled his
chestnuts out of the fire during the 2014 sit-in by standing solidly by him in
parliament. That was all the proof needed to understand that the real strength of
any elected civilian government lies in parliament and parliament alone.
Contrary to this wisdom, Nawaz ignored parliament (with nary an appearance in
the house) and could not resist the temptation to once again go for the PPP’s
jugular in ham-handed fashion. This has earned him Asif Zardari’s hostility and
the prospect of seeing his fortress under siege demolished bit by bit, starting
with Balochistan.
No comments:
Post a Comment