Daily Times Editorial March 9, 2014

Inching towards military operation? All the signs point towards the government inching slowly but surely towards a recognition of the inevitability of a military campaign if the current on-again-off-again talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fail. Defence Minister Khwaja Asif, widely considered till now amongst the government’s ministers as a voice for peace through negotiations, has in an interview spelt out the evolving view in the government regarding the talks process. The minister warned that if the talks fail, or the TTP and its affiliates violate the ‘ceasefire’, a military operation could follow within this month. Naturally this departure will be seen in the light of the attack on a courts complex in Islamabad recently. That attack came in the middle of efforts to get the talks process, already stalled because of the beheading of 23 Frontier Constabulary hostages in the custody of the Taliban, restarted. Any violation of the ceasefire, said Khwaja Asif, and that includes any so-called ‘splinter’ groups that the TTP is trying to 'distance' itself from, will invite a resumption of the air strikes and other actions that had persuaded the TTP earlier to sue for a ceasefire. The minister categorically stated that we are not going to take this lying down. He went on to argue that there are now very few takers for the argument that the Taliban are committed to dialogue. On the army’s role, Khwaja Asif diplomatically evaded any categorical statement regarding the possibility of the military being represented on the ‘new’ negotiating committee the government is contemplating by saying the army’s input is very valuable. He expressed scepticism about the TTP’s contention that the Islamabad attack was by a splinter group not under the control of the TTP. He went on to point out that in the light of the withdrawal of western forces from Afghanistan by year’s end, if the Afghan Taliban manage to get a foothold in the eastern and southeastern provinces of our neighbouring country close to the border, it would provide the Pakistani Taliban with a big boost, safe havens across the border and a powerhouse behind them in the shape of a resurgent Afghan Taliban. It may be recalled that all the reports speak of Mulla Fazlullah, the current chief of the TTP, having found a safe haven across the border under the umbrella, it may be noted, of the Haqqani network. Meanwhile in the monthly Corps Commanders meeting in Rawalpindi, the military’s top brass came out in guarded fashion on the security situation and the peace negotiations. They promised a robust response if attacks continued, but expressed some concern between the lines at the suspension of the air strikes that have proved so effective. Despite the former government negotiating committee’s head Irfan Siddiqui and Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid insisting the army should be represented in the reconstituted committee, the Corps Commanders were far from forthcoming, and in fact delivered the message indirectly that they considered the peace talks as an initiative of the government, i.e. they were perhaps not willing to take on the burden of a talks process they may be sceptical of the outcome of ab initio. This is what the Leader of the Opposition Syed Khursheed Shah of the PPP has been stressing of late. He is convinced that if the army is dragged into the talks, it may end up being blamed for their breakdown. However, speaking in the National Assembly, Khursheed Shah complained of the attitude of the government towards the opposition despite the latter’s consistent and unstinted support to the talks process. Khursheed Shah and both houses of parliament questioned Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali’s statements regarding the circumstances surrounding the killing of a judge in the Islamabad attack and giving a ‘certificate’ of patriotism to the majority of the Taliban. Contrary to Khwaja Asif’s take, it seems the only insistent pushers of the talks process are now Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar. Both gentlemen should realise that they are sticking their necks out and could end up on a limb if the talks fail and they have to then beat a hasty retreat to a position where a military operation becomes inevitable. Too much ‘investment’ in a potentially unsuccessful option would leave them with a huge credibility gap.